A week into the US-Israeli war against Iran, US president Donald Trump is facing a growing set of military, economic and political risks that could complicate efforts to convert early battlefield gains into a broader geopolitical victory. Despite major strikes on Iranian forces and the killing of its supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the crisis has rapidly widened into a regional conflict, raising the prospect of a prolonged US military engagement with consequences beyond Washington’s control. Analysts say the unfolding situation contrasts with Trump’s earlier preference for limited operations, such as the January raid in Venezuela and June’s strike on Iran’s nuclear sites.“Iran is a messy and potentially protracted military campaign,” Laura Blumenfeld of the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies in Washington told Reuters. “Trump is risking the global economy, regional stability and his own Republican party’s performance in the US midterm elections.”
Unclear endgame
Trump has long promised to keep the United States out of what he called “stupid” military interventions. However, analysts say the Iran campaign, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, has become the largest US military operation since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.According to Reuters, critics argue that the administration has yet to clearly outline its end goals or a detailed strategy for what would constitute victory.White House spokesperson Anna Kelly rejected that assessment, saying Trump’s objectives are clear – to “destroy Iran’s ballistic missiles and production capacity, demolish their navy, end their ability to arm proxies, and prevent them from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon.”
Political risks at home
For now, much of Trump’s MAGA base continues to support the war, despite criticism from some supporters opposed to foreign military interventions.But analysts say that support could weaken if the conflict drags on or US casualties increase. Opinion polls increasingly suggest that many voters, including a key bloc of independents, remain wary of another prolonged war in the Middle East. “The American people are not interested in repeating the mistakes of Iraq and Afghanistan,” Republican strategist Brian Darling said, as quoted by Reuters. “The MAGA base is split between those who relied on no-new-war promises and ones who are loyal to Trump’s judgment.” So far, six American service members have been reported killed in the conflict. Asked in a Time magazine interview about the possibility of Iran-inspired attacks in the US, Trump said: “I guess … Like I said, some people will die.” Jonathan Panikoff, a former US national intelligence officer for the Middle East, warned that American casualties could become a turning point. “Nothing is likely to hasten an early end to the war more than American casualties … That’s what Iran is counting on,” he said.
Regional escalation
The war has already expanded beyond Iran and Israel, with Iran launching retaliatory strikes across the region, targeting multiple Middle Eastern nations in wake of attacking US and Israeli military facilities. Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia has resumed hostilities with Israel, opening another front in the conflict and underscoring Tehran’s ability to activate allied groups despite leadership losses.Trump has also sent mixed signals on whether Washington is pursuing regime change in Tehran. While initially suggesting that Iran’s leadership could be overthrown through internal rebellion, he later stopped short of endorsing that goal.However, Trump told Reuters he could play a role in selecting Iran’s next leader and encouraged Iranian Kurdish rebels to attack. He later demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender” in a social media post.
Oil and economic impact
One of the most immediate concerns for policymakers is the threat to the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes.Iran has halted tanker traffic amid the conflict, raising fears of broader economic consequences if the disruption continues. Although Tehran later asserted that the critical shipping route will be closed for only American, Israeli and European vessels. “It’s an economic pain point on the US economy that it seems was not fully anticipated,” said Josh Lipsky of the Atlantic Council think tank.A former US military official told Reuters that the economic fallout caught some in the administration off guard because experts on oil markets were not widely consulted before the strikes.
Questions over strategy
Some analysts believe Trump miscalculated that the Iran campaign would unfold similarly to the earlier Venezuela operation, where US special forces captured President Nicolas Maduro and secured influence over the country’s oil resources without prolonged military action.Iran, however, has proved to be a more resilient adversary with a deeply entrenched political and security establishment. Even the joint US-Israeli strike that killed Khamenei and other senior leaders has not prevented Iran from mounting retaliation, raising questions about whether more hardline figures could replace the current leadership.Retired US army lieutenant General Ben Hodges told the agency that while the US military’s tactics have been effective, the broader strategy remains uncertain. “From a political, strategic and diplomatic standpoint, it seems not to have been thought all the way through,” he said.
Gulf allies and regional concerns
The conflict also places pressure on Gulf Arab states, which host US military bases and have pledged significant investment in the United States.While many Gulf governments have aligned with Washington following Iranian missile and drone strikes, concerns remain in the region about the broader consequences of the war.In an open letter to Trump, UAE businessman Khalaf Al Habtoor wrote: “Who gave you the right to turn our region into a battlefield?”With the cost of the campaign rising, by the first week US has already spent close to $3.7 billion according to CSIS, and the duration uncertain, Trump has said the operation could last “four or five weeks” or “whatever it takes,” though he has not detailed what the next phase of the strategy would involve.
