In early March, India was staring at a possible crude oil supply problem – the US-Iran war caused the Strait of Hormuz through which 20% of global crude transits to be effectively closed. To rescue came Russian crude oil! In fact, Russian crude has become a crucial support for India’s oil imports both in April and March. The import volumes are actually touching highs seen when India was bagging Russian crude at a huge discount.US President Donald Trump sanctioned two Russian oil majors towards the end of last year. This made it financially unviable for Indian refiners to continue to buy Russian crude at the same level as before, though flows of unsanctioned oil continued.However, in March, with the US sanctions waiver in effect, India has aggressively procured Russian crude, picking up millions of barrels. After the Russia-Ukraine war, Russian crude has maintained its position as the largest supplier of crude oil to India. Through Western sanctions, US President Donald Trump’s pressure and sanctions on Russian oil majors, crude from Russia has continued to flow to India, though the levels have varied.
However, experts believe that once the situation in the Middle East normalizes, India will go back to buying crude from Gulf countries, and Russia’s percentage in India’s oil imports will come down.
US sanctions waiver & India’s aggressive buying
India has never officially said that it will stop buying Russian crude, and even when levels dropped after sanctions, Russia was still the biggest contributor. However, the Donald Trump administration’s decision to waive sanctions on Russian crude, and extend that waiver to May has allowed Indian refiners to step up procurement without any worries.According to the latest report from Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA)’s analysis, while India’s total crude imports recorded a 4% reduction in March, Russian imports doubled.
“The biggest shift was in state-owned refineries’ imports from Russia, which saw a massive 148% month-on-month increase. Their imports were in fact 72% higher than March 2025, presumably due to Russian barrels being more available in the spot market, which serves as the primary source of imports for them,” says CREA.Russia’s share of India’s crude oil imports in March 2026 placed the month at the upper end of historical highs, closely mirroring peak levels seen in 2023, when Western sanctions redirected Russian oil flows toward Asia and made Moscow India’s single largest supplier.Sourav Mitra, Partner – Oil and Gas, Grant Thornton Bharat explains the emergence of Russia as a dominant supplier of crude for India.Russia’s share surged sharply in the months following the Ukraine war, peaking during several months in mid‑2023, particularly around May–June, when imports rose to about 1.9-2.0 million barrels per day and accounted for nearly 42-45% of India’s crude basket, displacing Iraq and Saudi Arabia. That dominance persisted through much of 2023, with average shares close to 40% between April and September, before easing in 2024 and early 2025 as price discounts narrowed, compliance costs increased and refiners partially rebalanced toward Middle Eastern grades.“Against this backdrop, the rebound seen in March 2026 effectively matches the 2023 peak, although the underlying drivers differed, with the latest spike largely reflecting supply disruptions in West Asia that curtailed Gulf inflows and compelled refiners to rely more heavily on available Russian cargoes. We expect that while March marks a return to near‑record dependence on Russian crude, such elevated levels are unlikely to persist once Middle Eastern supply chains stabilize,” Mitra tells TOI.
No more discounts! India paying a premium for Russian crude
What stands out is the fact that when India stepped up its procurement of Russian crude after the Ukraine war began, the oil was available at very steep discounts. This was due to European sanctions that made Russian crude available at a much lower rate than Brent. Come 2026, with oil supplies via Hormuz disrupted and global crude oil prices rising, Russia is now selling at a premium!According to Sourav Mitra of Grant Thornton Bharat, Indian refiners are currently paying a premium of about $4-6 per barrel over the Brent benchmark for Russian crude. These are some of the highest delivered premiums on Russian crude since Russia began diverting large volumes of crude to Asia after the Ukraine war, he tells TOI. “This shift is attributed to intense competition for prompt Russian cargoes as disruptions to Middle Eastern supply routes pushed refiners to prioritise assured deliveries over price. The premium contrasts starkly with February 2026, when Indian buyers were still securing Russian crude at discounts of roughly $12–$15 per barrel, shortly before conditions deteriorated in the Strait of Hormuz,” he elaborates.In fact, the turnaround is even more pronounced compared with 2022-23, when Russian crude frequently traded $20-$30 below Brent. The price inversion was reinforced by the US sanctions waiver issued in early March 2026 and effectively released millions of barrels into the market, strengthening sellers’ leverage. “As a result, India has shifted from discount‑driven buying to security‑led procurement, paying a premium to ensure supply continuity while Gulf flows remain disrupted,” he adds.
Why India continues to buy Russian crude
Russian oil is not going out of India’s crude imports anytime soon, experts say.However, Ivan Mathews, Head of APAC Analysis at Vortexa expects Russian crude imports to decline month-on-month in April. “Discounts on Russian crude were less competitive due to increased demand during the sanctions waiver period, which has since been extended to 16 May. This will lead to lower marginal imports for economics-driven refineries in India. Additionally, reduced crude loadings from Russia will decrease the availability of Russian barrels for imports in the coming weeks,” Mathews tells TOI.
Mitra of Grant Thornton Bharat says that Russian crude is now well integrated into India’s refining system and serves as a reliable fallback when alternative supplies tighten. Russia is likely to remain an important supplier through 2026 even as its share moderates from March’s highs and Middle Eastern flows stabilize.Sumit Ritolia, Manager Modelling and Refining at Kpler believes that Russian oil will continue to be a major part of India’s crude oil imports in the coming months as well. Currently, India’s Russian crude imports are tracking at around 1.6mbd, which is approximately 375 kbd lower than March levels.However, as Ritolia points out, this dip needs context as Nayara (≈400 kbd, fully reliant on Russian crude) has been under maintenance since the second week of April. Adjusting for this, the underlying demand signal for Russian barrels remains intact.“The flows are expected to range between 1.5-2 mbd with a slight dip possible due to ongoing infrastructure issues in Russia due to the conflict with Ukraine,” Ritolia tells TOI.Interestingly, Kpler data shows that even after US sanctions on Russian majors Lukoil and Rosneft came into effect late last year, Russia continued to be the largest supplier of crude oil to India. However, admittedly the volumes saw a sharp drop, with February levels being much lower. While the Donald Trump administration claimed finalising a trade deal contingent on India stopping crude imports from Russia, New Delhi has never said it will not buy oil from Moscow.The US first waived the sanctions in early March and then extended the waiver recently. Experts are of the view that even when the sanctions waiver lapses, Russian oil will continue to be imported, though the quantities may dip.“A key point that is often missed is that Russian oil itself is not sanctioned but certain entities, vessels, and financial channels are,” says Sumit Ritolia.According to Ritolia, Russia continues to be a core supplier for India, but in the absence of sanctions waiver procurement must strictly ensure:• No involvement of sanctioned sellers or intermediaries• Use of non-sanctioned vessels• Fully compliant financial, insurance, and trading channelsIndia is unlikely to move away from Russian crude in the near term. Instead, we should expect more documentation, tighter screening rather than a structural shift in sourcing as and when sanctions lapse, Ritolia added.
India’s Diversified Crude Supplies
But even as Russia is expected to continue being an important player in India’s crude imports, it is equally important to note that New Delhi has diversified its basket to include over 40 countries.As Sushil Mishra, Director, Crisil Intelligence points out: Historically, Russia’s share in India’s crude imports peaked at over 40%, however, it has varied in the last few years amid diversification efforts and evolving geopolitical dynamics. Improved refinery flexibilities have enabled Indian refiners to process a wider range of crude grades including those from the American, Russian, and Middle Eastern.“India continues to strengthen its energy resilience by diversifying crude sourcing and maintaining a pragmatic sourcing strategy driven by price, availability, and energy security considerations. This approach allows flexibility to adjust sourcing patterns in response to changing global market conditions and geopolitical developments,” he tells TOI.
