After months of war, crippling sanctions, a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and repeated threats of escalation, the United States and Iran have digitally signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) that has paused one of the Middle East’s most consequential conflicts in recent years.The agreement opens a 60-day window for negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme, sanctions relief and regional security, while temporarily easing tensions that rattled global energy markets.Yet the ceasefire raises more questions than it answers. Even as Washington and Tehran call the deal a breakthrough, disagreements persist over sanctions relief, frozen Iranian assets, nuclear inspections and Lebanon’s future.Uncertainty surfaced almost immediately, with fresh tensions over Israeli operations in Lebanon and public differences between US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.“We laid a very good foundation for a successful final deal. The final deal is the house. We haven’t built the house, but we’ve laid a successful foundation,” US Vice President JD Vance said after the talks in Switzerland.
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As the dust settles, a larger question dominates: Who actually emerged stronger? Did Washington achieve its core objectives, or did Tehran turn battlefield losses into negotiating leverage? With crucial issues unresolved, could the next 60 days determine whether the war truly ends—or merely enters a new phase?
From ‘unconditional surrender’ to negotiations
When the United States entered the conflict in late February, President Trump set ambitious aims: cripple Iran’s missile programme, prevent it from rebuilding nuclear capabilities and create conditions that might weaken or transform the Islamic Republic’s leadership.“There will be no deal with Iran except unconditional surrender!” Trump declared early in the conflict.He even encouraged Iranians to “take over” their government, fuelling speculation that regime change was an unofficial war aim. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu backed a strategy to fundamentally weaken Tehran and reshape the regional balance.
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Months later, the US‑Iran peace deal reflects far narrower goals. The MoU contains no provisions on regime change, no commitment by Iran to dismantle its ballistic missile programme and no immediate surrender of its enriched uranium stockpile.Instead, both sides agreed to pursue further negotiations on Iran’s nuclear activities, sanctions relief and regional security during a 60‑day window. Trump has softened several earlier positions, indicating openness to limited civilian nuclear activity and downplaying calls for regime change.
What the US gained
Despite criticism that Washington fell short of its original aims, the Trump administration can point to tangible gains.Most immediately, the deal creates a path for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, ending a crisis that disrupted a vital energy corridor and sent oil prices up. A dedicated communication channel for Hormuz is intended to prevent future incidents and ensure safe passage for commercial vessels.The agreement brought Iran back to the negotiating table after months of direct confrontation. For the first time since the conflict began, both sides formally committed to a 60‑day diplomatic process focused on nuclear issues, sanctions and regional security. US officials see this as a chance to seek restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activities through talks rather than force.
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Another potential win is Iran’s reported willingness to discuss renewed international oversight of its nuclear programme. Vance called Iran’s alleged agreement to allow International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors back a “major milestone” and “the first step in permanently denuclearising Iran.” Tehran has denied finalising such a concession, but inspections are now central to ongoing negotiations.The deal also delivered a temporary regional de‑escalation. The ceasefire framework aims to halt direct US‑Iran hostilities, reduce tensions in Lebanon through a proposed “de‑confliction cell” and create mechanisms to manage disputes before they escalate.Crucially for the White House, the agreement eases pressure on global energy markets. The reopening of Hormuz, combined with a temporary waiver on Iranian oil exports, could stabilise supplies and reduce the risk of another energy shock—politically valuable ahead of US midterms.These gains remain provisional. Hormuz has not fully returned to normal, nuclear talks are only starting, and many aspects of the accord are disputed. Washington’s success will be judged by whether it can convert the MoU into a broader, durable final agreement.
What Iran gained
Tehran can plausibly argue it secured many core objectives without conceding the most contentious points.One immediate benefit was the US waiver allowing Iranian oil exports for 60 days, letting Tehran resume crude and petrochemical sales. Iranian officials also claim frozen assets worth $300 billion could be released as part of a broader process.The agreement opens the door to wider sanctions relief if a final settlement is reached. For a country battered by economic pressure, restricted exports and frozen funds, even the prospect of easing is a major diplomatic win.
Politically, the deal marked a retreat from several Washington demands. Trump’s earlier calls for “unconditional surrender” and regime change are absent from the MoU. Iran’s leadership remains intact, its missile programme untouched, and the nuclear issue has been deferred rather than settled.Iranian negotiators stressed Lebanon-related provisions, arguing the pact’s emphasis on ending hostilities and respecting Lebanese sovereignty protects Tehran’s regional interests. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi framed the economic concessions and waivers as meeting many of Iran’s conditions.That helps explain why some analysts say Iran absorbed military costs but gained enough leverage to preserve core strategic interests at the negotiating table. The coming 60 days will show whether that advantage yields a lasting settlement or a temporary pause.
Netanyahu’s dilemma
The US‑Iran deal reduces the immediate risk of a wider war but poses a political and strategic problem for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.The MoU not only halts US‑Iran tensions; it establishes mechanisms aimed at ending hostilities in Lebanon, putting Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah under scrutiny. That cuts against a central objective of Israel’s war: degrading Hezbollah’s capabilities and pushing the group away from the northern border.
Israeli forces advanced into Lebanese territory and captured strategic positions they vowed to hold. The new agreement’s “de‑confliction cell” is designed to support a ceasefire in Lebanon, and Iranian negotiators tied developments in Lebanon directly to wider US‑Iran diplomacy.Timing is difficult for Netanyahu. With elections expected later this year, the war against Hezbollah remains politically popular in Israel. Opinion polls show strong support for continuing military operations even at the risk of friction with Washington.But tensions with the US are visible. Trump criticised Israeli strikes in Lebanon that threatened to derail talks, and senior US officials pushed back on Israeli concerns. Netanyahu must balance domestic pressure to keep fighting with dependence on US military, financial and diplomatic support.One big unanswered question is whether Israel will fully align with the diplomatic roadmap now being pursued by its closest ally.
The nuclear test
The core dispute that triggered the conflict—Iran’s nuclear programme—remains unresolved.Talks must now confront the future of Iran’s enriched‑uranium stockpile, permissible enrichment levels, the scope of international inspections and verification mechanisms.A major sticking point is Iran’s estimated stockpile enriched up to 60%, just short of weapons‑grade levels. The US has pushed for strict limits and control over the stockpile; Iran rejects handing over material but has signalled on‑site dilution or downblending could be discussed.
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Disagreement also centres on inspections. Vance’s claim that Iran agreed to let IAEA inspectors return was denied by Tehran, underscoring how contested interpretations already are.
Seven unanswered questions
- Is the deal fully in effect? The MoU is digitally signed and a ceasefire extension is in place, but several provisions depend on implementation timelines and a formal signing ceremony.
- Will the Strait of Hormuz truly reopen without restrictions? The US says shipping will resume freely; Iranian officials hint at retaining oversight or administrative roles.
- What economic benefits will Iran actually receive? Tehran claims frozen assets will be released and sanctions eased; Washington says broader relief will depend on compliance.
- Do both sides agree on what was agreed? Disputes already exist over frozen assets, sanctions relief and inspectors, raising interpretation questions.
- Will Israel comply with the Lebanon provisions? The agreement ties de‑escalation to a Lebanon ceasefire, but Israeli leaders have signalled reluctance to surrender military freedom of action against Hezbollah.
- Can Washington and Tehran reach a final nuclear agreement? Key issues—enrichment limits, stockpile fate, inspections and sanctions relief—remain deeply contentious.
- Could the war resume if talks collapse? US officials warn military options remain; Iran retains leverage, making the ceasefire’s durability uncertain.
The next 60 days: Where the deal could collapse
The toughest issues were left unresolved and will dominate the next 60 days.Nuclear talks are central: enrichment limits, the fate of highly enriched uranium, and a robust inspection regime will likely determine whether the accord survives.Economic issues could prove equally thorny. Iran seeks broader sanctions relief and access to frozen assets; US officials say concessions will hinge on compliance. Disputes are already emerging over how frozen funds would be used and which sanctions would be lifted.Lebanon is another test. The MoU’s mechanisms aim to end hostilities, but Israeli operations or Hezbollah retaliation could quickly derail the fragile process.Implementation disputes—over inspections, sanctions relief and frozen assets—could revive the trust deficit that defines US‑Iran relations.A senior US official told Axios that the coming weeks will reveal whether the understandings so far can evolve into a lasting agreement or merely become a temporary pause. For now, the war may have stopped, but the real negotiations are only beginning.
